GlidePath
Retirement scenario planner

Monthly budget

List what you spend each month. This becomes the spending baseline your retirement projections are built on. You can keep several budgets per client and pick which one a plan uses.

Household

Who is this plan for?

Life expectancy. 92–95 is a safe planning default.

Savings today

Current balances by account type.

Annual contributions

What you add each year while still working. Include employer match in pre-tax.

Raises usually push savings up ~2%/yr.

Social Security & pension

Enter benefit estimates from ssa.gov (today's dollars, per year).

Leave blank for lifetime.

Retirement target

% of your budget you'll spend once retired. 80–90% is typical.

Baseline outlook

Updates live as you type. Low / medium / high reflect weak, average, and strong markets — see the Assumptions tab.

Glide path

Medium case Low–high range Retirement starts

What-if scenarios

Each scenario starts from your baseline plan — change only what you want to test.

Compare scenarios

Pick two or more to see them side by side. Lines show the medium-case portfolio balance.

How GlidePath does the math

Everything runs locally in your browser. Nothing is uploaded anywhere.

Return assumptions (and where they come from)

Historical long-run averages, 1926–2024 (nominal, before inflation): U.S. large-cap stocks ≈ 10.2%/yr, intermediate government bonds ≈ 5%/yr, inflation ≈ 2.9%/yr. A 60/40 blend has historically returned roughly 8%/yr nominal.

MixStocks/BondsLowMediumHigh
Conservative30 / 703.5%5.0%6.5%
Balanced60 / 404.5%6.5%8.5%
Growth80 / 205.5%8.0%10.5%

Medium cases sit about 1–1.5% below the historical blend average — deliberate caution to cover fees, sequence-of-returns risk, and the possibility that future returns run cooler than the past. The low case approximates a persistently weak market; the high case approximates a strong one. Real outcomes are bumpier than any smooth line.

Taxes

  • Federal income tax uses the 2025 brackets and standard deduction ($15,750 single / $31,500 joint), with brackets indexed to your inflation assumption each year. State tax is not modeled — add ~3–6% mentally if your state taxes retirement income.
  • Pre-tax withdrawals, Roth conversions, and pension income are taxed as ordinary income. 85% of Social Security is treated as taxable (the common case for retirees with meaningful savings).
  • Brokerage withdrawals assume half of each dollar is realized gain taxed at the 15% capital-gains rate (≈7.5% effective).
  • Pre-tax withdrawals before age 59½ incur the 10% early-withdrawal penalty — unless the Rule of 55 toggle is on and you're 55+ (separation from your employer at 55 or later allows penalty-free withdrawals from that employer's 401(k)).

Required minimum distributions

RMDs start at age 73 (born before 1960) or 75 (born 1960 or later), per SECURE 2.0, using the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. RMD money you don't spend is reinvested in your brokerage account.

Other mechanics

  • Withdrawal order: cash → brokerage → pre-tax → Roth (a common tax-efficient default).
  • Spending and Social Security grow with your inflation assumption. Pension/part-time income is flat (no COLA).
  • The readiness score: High (70–100) means even the low-return case lasts to your planning age; Medium (40–69) means the medium case lasts but the low case runs dry; Low (0–39) means the medium case runs dry.

What this is not

GlidePath is an educational model, not financial, tax, or legal advice. It uses smooth average returns, simplified tax rules, and your own estimates. Before acting on a plan — especially Roth conversions or early retirement — talk it through with a qualified financial planner or CPA.

GlidePath stores everything in your browser (IndexedDB) — your data never leaves this device. Educational tool only; not financial advice.